House of the Dragon: Who might win the Dance of the Dragons — Team Black or Team Green?

The Targaryen civil war or the Dance of the Dragons, is the most brutal and tragic chapter in the history of House of the Dragon or, originally A Song of Ice and Fire. Initially recounted in George R. R. Martin's Fire & Blood, this war was not merely about who would sit upon the Iron Throne. It was a crisis that tore apart families, came close to eliminating dragons, and irreversibly changed the way of rule of the Targaryens.

On one side was Rhaenyra Targaryen, the king's named heir and daughter, supported by those who sided with her claim—Team Black. Opposite her was her half-brother Aegon II, who was supported by the influential Hightowers and dubbed Team Green. What began as a dispute over succession soon erupted into all-out civil war.

But the Dance was never merely a politicized spat. It tested each boundary—loyalty, ambition, mourning, and the appalling power of dragons in combat. Rhaenyra and Aegon II both ultimately perished, and their aftermath left the kingdom with a boy king, Aegon III, whose reign was haunted by everything that had transpired.

The war's long shadows reached far beyond the battlefield itself, influencing laws of succession, popular opinion about Targaryens, and Westeros's complex relationship with its dragonriders.

Now, though House of the Dragon is bringing this history to life on television, fans are left struggling with an unanswerable question: who really deserves to win the Dance of the Dragons? Is the victor supposed to be the one with the strongest right to it? The best morals? The most cunning strategy? Or is it whoever does the least harm to the realm?

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Team Black vs. Team Green: Who might come out on top in House of the Dragon?

Where the TV show stands now

By the time Season 2 of House of the Dragon ends, the war between Team Black and Team Green is already fully underway. The dragons have flown into battle, and the bloodshed has fully erupted on all sides. The most dramatic of these intense moments so far is the Battle at Rook's Rest, where dragons clash in apocalyptic combat, and there's clearly no going back now.

The Red Sowing, a campaign of brutal retaliation, is not far behind, further intensifying the bloodshed. And on the horizon, threatening to overshadow them all, is the Battle of the Gullet, hyped as the most epic and tumultuous conflict to date.

But it's not merely about the fight. House of the Dragon has been patient in stripping away at the emotional stages behind the war. We see Rhaenyra mourning the death of her son Lucerys, Alicent unraveling under stress and remorse, and figures like Daemon, Aemond, and Criston Cole mired in their own individual whirlwinds of pride, anguish, and authority.

The war is equally a psychological mess as it is a political one.

Although House of the Dragon sticks fairly close to Fire & Blood, it’s not a straight copy. The show has added depth to motivations and relationships, giving us a more human look at these larger-than-life figures. It's not just a clash of houses—it’s a messy family tragedy where both sides are understandable, flawed, and relatable.

House of the Dragon also bends reality a bit about how things happen. Some of the plot occurs out of order or is detailed for dramatic tension, and some characters from the book, such as Daeron Targaryen, haven't appeared yet. But these deviations work for the story, letting us experience the stakes in real time instead of merely reading them as history.

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Team Black: What they're working with

House of the Dragon shows that Rhaenyra's own claim to the throne is from her father, King Viserys I, and it's supported by sworn oaths of lords throughout the realm. That feeling of betrayal—when such oaths are broken—gives her cause added emotional depth. Team Black begins with more dragons and seasoned riders. Daemon rides Caraxes, Rhaenyra is on Syrax, and her sons are not new to dragonback. And with the mighty Velaryon fleet on their side, they command the oceans and stand a legitimate chance of conquering King's Landing by sea.

But perfection is not the name of the game. Rhaenyra's relationship with Daemon is complicated, to say the least, and divisions within her own camp are beginning to form.

Rumors regarding the legitimacy of her sons and her union with Daemon are manipulated by the Greens, turning the people against her. And although she possesses the firepower, Rhaenyra's forces have been frustratingly slow to act at times, allowing the Greens to regroup and entrench themselves.

By House of the Dragon Season 2's end, Rhaenyra is shell-shocked by the death of her son and the massacre at Rook's Rest. She is more determined than ever, but it's obvious the burden of the war is exacting its costs. The Velaryons are still loyal for the moment, but as losses grow and tensions escalate, no one knows how much longer that will hold true.

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Team Green: Strengths and struggles

In House of the Dragon, Team Green controls King's Landing, so they have the Iron Throne, the bureaucracy, and the crown itself—massive advantages in terms of resources and legitimacy. Alicent, Otto Hightower, and Criston Cole are all skilled political players who know how to leverage their positions to gain power. And then there is Vhagar. Aemond on the biggest living dragon, is a game-changer, and it's reflected in the havoc he wreaks on the battlefield.

Of course, it isn't exactly stable on the Green side of things either. Aegon II is rash, insecure, and usually a liability. Aemond is too ambitious, and Criston Cole's tactics aren't making them popular. The masses view their ascension as a coup, and their turn to violence and threats is pushing away possible allies. They also began with fewer dragons and have lost some of their most important riders along the way.

As House of the Dragon Season 2 ends, the Greens remain standing—barely. They've had enough strength to stay firm and even land some crushing blows, but their leadership is tenuous, and internal strife simmers just below the surface.

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Book insights: What history tells us

In case you're curious how it all actually concludes in George R. R. Martin's Fire & Blood, the brief response is: no one really wins. The Dance of the Dragons ends up consuming both Rhaenyra and Aegon II. Rhaenyra, for a fleeting and supremely tragic period as queen, is betrayed and murdered—eaten by Aegon's dragon, Sunfyre, before her own son.

Aegon II does not fare much better. While he survives her, he is physically broken, emotionally devastated, and eventually poisoned by members of his own council, who are simply exhausted with the instability.

Ultimately, it's Rhaenyra's son Aegon III who sits upon the Iron Throne—a child, left to inherit a war-torn kingdom and almost dragonless. He would come to be known as Aegon the Dragonbane, the king who watched the last of the dragons pass away during his rule.

The major takeaway is that this was a pyrrhic victory through and through. Both factions lost almost everything—family, power, friends, and the dragons that had characterized Targaryen leadership for centuries. And where someone technically "won," the price was so devastating that it left the dynasty weakened forever.

There's also a lasting shadow cast by what the war showed us about civil wars in general. The Dance didn't simply destroy armies—it shattered houses, widened rivalries, and left wounds that wouldn't close for decades.

Lastly, maybe the greatest effect is the way in which the war rocked the foundations of royal authority. Rhaenyra was the named heir, backed by solemn oaths, and her claim was overruled. That precedent would continue to haunt the realm years after her passing, affirming the notion that a woman's right to inherit could always be challenged—and that the crown could be taken by force, no matter how clear the line of succession.

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