“Lots of little things going on here" – Shark Tank star Kevin O'Leary analyzes CBO's predictions

Shark Tank star and investor Kevin O’Leary took to social media on June 5 to share his sharp take on the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and recent federal tax proposals. He focused particularly on how new language in a Trump-backed bill could harm small businesses.

O’Leary made two separate appearances on Fox News and Fox Business. In both, he highlighted the CBO's significant forecasting failures on the Affordable Care Act. He also expressed serious concerns about a proposed extension of IRS audit authority over Employee Retention Credit (ERC) claims.

O’Leary is known for his role on Shark Tank and for his direct approach to economic policy. He emphasized that the fine print of legislative changes could have outsized impacts on small business owners.

“There's a lot of little things going on here, but you're right. The overriding issue is how to score the CBOs,” he noted.

He stressed the need to pay attention to all parts of the bill.

---

Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary critiques CBO forecasts and legislative fine print

In a conversation posted to his Instagram account on June 5, Shark Tank star Kevin O’Leary joined a Fox News segment criticizing the accuracy of the Congressional Budget Office's projections, especially in relation to the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare. The Fox News anchor stated during the interview:

“The CBO was way off on Obamacare. It said Obamacare would increase the number of people on Medicaid by 16 million. Kevin, the number is more than twice that. 34 million went on that."

She noted that the Congressional Budget Office had projected 24 million people would enroll in insurance through the Obamacare exchanges, but only 14 million actually did. As a result, more individuals ended up on Medicaid instead, which she cited as an example of the CBO being significantly off in its predictions. Responding to this, O’Leary said:

“Yeah, listen, they've had a lot of variance. There's no question about it.”

He acknowledged that the legislative process around health care reform and related scoring had flaws, noting that revisions to the bill were already underway.

“The bill also has some tweaking that's going on right now. Probably a lot of it done by next Friday,” he said.

He then turned to what he identified as one of the more controversial pieces of the ongoing revisions: a section involving the IRS and tax audits.

“One of the tweaks that's being worked on that's freaked out a lot of senators is this idea of empowering the IRS to audit businesses for nine years that took ERC tax credits. That's a non-starter, so I'm sure they're going to work on that language,” O’Leary stated.

He referred to the challenge of relying on long-term projections from the CBO and questioned how one can effectively evaluate forecasts that extend ten years into the future.

---

O’Leary warns of IRS audit expansion and tax bill consequences

O’Leary expanded further on the implications of the IRS-related language during an appearance with Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo. Speaking about the new legislative text, O’Leary said:

“We’ve got a situation in this new beautiful bill. It almost seems unfair and un-American to do that to small business.”

The Shark Tank investor was referencing a proposal that would grant the IRS extended power to audit businesses that claimed the ERC during the COVID-19 pandemic. The ERC, originally introduced as a financial relief program, has been a key source of support for small businesses.

According to the Shark Tank investor, the proposed changes—specifically allowing the IRS to audit for up to nine years—would “cause chaos in valuations” and generate long-term uncertainty for business owners.

“I read all these bills through the eyes of small business,” O’Leary said. “(It) says the IRS will get extended powers to audit small businesses for up to nine years if it took the ERC. Now, that is going to cause chaos in valuations if you have that hanging over your head.”

The Shark Tank star suggested that many lawmakers may not have fully read the legislation. To raise awareness, he said he planned to go to Capitol Hill himself, joking that he would walk through the halls banging a gong to ask lawmakers what they were doing. He emphasized that the bill needs changes, saying it’s not beneficial for small businesses in its current form.

---

Shark Tank airs every Friday on ABC at 8 pm EST.